Although he dissects the political atmosphere at some length, Barone's main suggestion is that,
Now we seem to be entering a new period, a period of open-field politics. It seems to be a time when there are no permanent alliances, when new leaders arise with new strategies and tactics, when the voters, instead of forming themselves into two coherent and cohesive armies, wander about the field, attaching themselves to one band and then another, with no clear lines of battle and no landmarks to rally beside.
He goes on to compare the coming election with three somewhat similar situations and comes up with the 1992 Labour win in the United Kingdom, the 1952 Eisenhower win in the United States and 1992 run of Ross Perot. His own opinion seems to be that the 1952 scenario is the most likely, though he stops short of predicting that Republicans will retake the Congress. I am not sure I agree with all of Barone's opinions on the election, but as always, he offers eminently intelligent and well-reasoned thoughts. Read the whole thing.
Hat tip to Power Line.