On Primaries

Well, after the Super Tuesday melee, it seems that for the Republicans, the race has solidified into Senator John McCain and everyone else. According to Ed Morrissey over at Captain's Quarters, it seems McCain has won nine states, including California, New York and Missouri. Interestingly, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won in Alabama, West Virginia, Georgia and Tennessee. Mitt Romney only won Massachusetts and some small states.

This essentially means that the nomination is McCain's to lose. Romeny would have to virtually run the table in alll the other contests, while shutting Huckabee out entirely to have a real shot at the nomination. Since this is unlikely to occur, I think that Republicans have better start getting used to the idea that McCain will be the nominee. I said before Super Tuesday that I would prefer Mitt Romney, but I would happily support McCain. that is still true. Although I have serious policy disagreements with McCain, especially on the McCain-Kennedy amnesty bill, I believe that McCain remains a better choice for the nation than either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

Speaking of Clinton and Obama, it appears that on the Democratic side, there is a dead heat. Obama actually leads in delegates, although Hillary's superdelegate count is her trump card. If Obama can continue this impressive success in the remaining primaries, then Hillary will be in real trouble, as her need to use the Democratic superdelegates to win the nomination could fracture the Democrats' bloc votes (blacks, Hispanics and women). We could be in for a very interesting stretch run on the Dmocratic side.

For Republicans, much hangs on McCain's performance at the upcoming CPAC conference in Washington next week. If McCain can convince conservatives that he will not betray them, then the nominations is his. He will need the Republican base in order to win in November, especially as his current media support will evaporate as soon as the Democrats settle on a candidate.